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                            Kitco聚焦:2007年的黄金和原油价格
                            时间:2007/10/30 15:55:34    来源:KITCO金之国 作者:Wendy

                                假如我们除去2007年第四季度的第一个月不考虑的话,我们就可以看到黄金和原油价格表现的一条显著的轨迹。在这一年里,国际市场原油价格上涨了51%,同时现货黄金价格上涨了26%。就像EIA在他们2007年10月的短期能源和冬季燃料展望中宣称的那样,现在许多支撑高原油价格的因素是来自“过剩生产能力的下降,原油存货的减少,和世界范围内的强劲需求”。而且,EIA预期在2008年,每月原油的平均价格会保持在大约每桶70美元的水平。

                                YUANYOUJIAGEDESHANGSHENGZIRANHUIJIWOMENDAILAIDUITONGHUOPENGZHANGDEDANYOU。BIJING,SHIJIEYUANYOUJIAGECONG1980NIANTADESHANGYICIFENGZHICHUKAISHIYIZHICHUYUSHANGSHENGTONGDAO。ZAI1979NIAN,OPEC(SHIYOUSHUCHUGUOZUZHI),ZHUYAOSHISHATEALABOJIANSHAOLESHIJIEDESHIYOUGONGJI,ZAOCHENGSHIJIEYUANYOUJIAGESHANGZHANGLEJIN40%,GENGHUIFULEOPECJIANSHAOLEDESHICHANGFENE。ZAIJINTIANDEWENZHANGLI,WOMENJIANGTANDAOZAIZHONGDONGZHENGZAIFASHENGDEJINZHANGJUSHI,YIJIDUIYUYUANYOUDEGONGJIZAIJIJIANGDAOLAIDEDONGTIANNENGBUNENGMANZUYIGEZHENGZAIKUOZHANGZHONGDEXUQIUDEDANYOU,JISHIYOUOPECDAO2007NIAN11YUEFENJIANGHUIRICHANZENGJIA50WANTONGYUANYOUDESHENGMING。

                            wendy-1030-1

                            点击此处查看全部新闻图片

                                RANERTONGHUOPENGZHANGRENGRANZAIKONGZHIZHIZHONG,JISHIZAIYUANYOUDEJIAGEFANGMIANYOUYIGECHIXUDEZENGZHANG。CPI-UDEZENGZHANGJIXUBAOCHIZAI3%YIXIA,JIEZHIDAO2007NIAN9YUECPI-UDAYUECHUZAIMEINIAN2.5%DESHUIPING。GDPPINGJIANZHISHUDENIANZENGZHANGLVZEGAOCHUCPI-U0.3%,ZAI2007NIANDETOULIANGGEJIDUZHONGDADAO2.8%。DUIYUDISANJIDUDEGUJIRENGRANDAIDING。2007NIANDISANJIDUDEGDPXIANQIYUCEJIANGHUIZAI10YUE31HAOGONGBU。YOUYUTONGHUOPENGZHANGKANQILAIHAOXIANGHAIZAIKONGZHIZHIZHONG(QINGNIZHUYI,ZHEIZHISHIYIXIECHUBUDEYUCE),MEIGUOJINGJIKENENGBUHUIFASHENGZHIZHANG。ZHIZHANGCENGJINGFASHENGZAI1970NIANDAIZHONGQIHE1980NIANDAI。

                                ZHIZHANGJIUSHIZAIFASHENGTONGHUOPENGZHANGTONGSHIBANSUIZHEJINGJIDESHUAITUI。XIAOFEIYIYUYIJINGCONGNIANCHUDE96.9%XIAJIANGDAO10YUE26RISHANGGEXINGQIWUBAODAODE80.9%,XIADIELE16.5%。XIAOFEIYIYUGAOSUWOMENXIAOFEIZHEYOUDUODADEYIYUANQUXIAOFEI,ERQIECONGGUOMINHESUANDETEXINGLAISHUO,TAZAIJUEDINGGUOMINSHOURUFANGMIANQIDAOLEHENDADEZUOYONG。TASHIWOMENPANDUANYIGEJINGJISHIFOUYIJINGZOUCHUXIAOTIAODEZHUYAOCHIDU。

                                NEIME,DAOMUQIANWEIZHI,2007NIANGEYUEFENDEBIAOXIANSHIZENYANGDENI?XIAMIANDEBIAO1ZHAIYAOLIECHULECONG2007NIAN1YUEDAO10YUE26HAOHUANGJINHEYUANYOUJIAGEZHUYAOSHUJU。

                            表1:2007年原油和黄金的每月价格*

                            日期
                            每月平均
                            每月与平均价格的偏差
                            最小值
                            最大值
                            国际市场原油价格
                            黄金(PM
                            国际市场原油价格
                            黄金(PM)
                            国际市场原油价格
                            黄金 (PM)
                            国际市场原油价格
                            黄金 (PM)
                            2007年总共
                            $68.56
                            $680.98
                            $8.81
                            $29.65
                            $51.93
                            $625.55
                            $92.09
                            $767.50
                            20071
                            $56.04
                            $649.17
                            $2.76
                            $15.22
                            $51.93
                            $625.55
                            $62.48
                            $670.13
                            20072
                            $60.73
                            $680.64
                            $1.36
                            $10.87
                            $58.75
                            $661.45
                            $63.29
                            $702.48
                            20073
                            $61.65
                            $668.01
                            $2.88
                            $8.63
                            $57.54
                            $649.50
                            $67.42
                            $683.82
                            20074
                            $64.93
                            $688.12
                            $1.38
                            $8.87
                            $62.61
                            $666.73
                            $67.31
                            $700.30
                            20075
                            $64.12
                            $672.90
                            $1.28
                            $10.19
                            $62.10
                            $658.56
                            $66.85
                            $695.04
                            20076
                            $67.92
                            $659.63
                            $1.69
                            $8.92
                            $65.19
                            $646.15
                            $70.91
                            $675.74
                            20077
                            $74.58
                            $669.97
                            $1.97
                            $9.78
                            $71.55
                            $652.79
                            $78.69
                            $688.56
                            20078
                            $72.69
                            $668.32
                            $2.00
                            $4.93
                            $69.60
                            $660.38
                            $77.18
                            $678.46
                            20079
                            $80.10
                            $716.49
                            $2.68
                            $19.38
                            $75.25
                            $680.36
                            $84.05
                            $744.77
                            200710
                            $84.49
                            $748.18
                            $4.10
                            $13.19
                            $78.97
                            $725.50
                            $92.09
                            $767.50
                             
                             
                                                                   
                            *资料来源: Kitco Metals Inc; EIA
                            以上原油和黄金的价格全部用美元计算. 截止到20071026
                             

                                从以上的表中,我们可以很清楚的看到:

                                1.自从2007年年初开始,以美元计算的原油和黄金的现货价格全部都在持续的上涨中。基于每月数据的平均值来说,原油价格上涨了近5%,同时黄金价格上涨了近2%。

                                2.YUANYOUDEXIANHUOJIAGEPIANLILETAMEIYUEDEPINGJUNJIAGE2.21MEIYUAN,TONGSHIHUANGJINDEXIANHUOJIAGEPIANLITAMEIYUEDEPINGJUNJIAGEYOU11MEIYUANZHIDUO。

                                3.YUANYOUJIAGEYIJINGCONG51.93MEIYUANSHANGZHANGDAO78.97MEIYUAN,SHANGZHANGLE52%。TONGSHIZUIXIAODEMEIYUEPINGJUNHUANGJINJIAGECONG625.55MEIYUANSHANGZHANGDAOLE725.50MEIYUAN,SHANGZHANGLEJIN16%。ZONGDELAISHUO,2007NIANYUANYOUDEZUIXIAOPINGJUNJIAGESHI65.35MEIYUAN,ERHUANGJINDEZUIXIAOPINGJUNJIAGESHI662.70MEIYUAN。

                                4.YUANYOUDEMEIYUEPINGJUNZUIDAJIAGEYIJINGCONG62.48MEIYUANSHANGZHANGDAOLE92.09MEIYUAN,SHANGZHANGLE47%。TONGSHIHUANGJINDEMEIYUEPINGJUNZUIDAJIAGECONG670.13MEIYUANSHANGZHANGDAOLE767.50MEIYUAN,SHANGZHANGLE14.5%。ZONGERYANZHI,2007NIANYUANYOUDEZUIDAPINGJUNJIAGESHI73.03MEIYUAN,ERHUANGJINDEZUIDAPINGJUNJIAGESHI700.68MEIYUAN。

                                5.YUANYOUPINGJUNZUIDAJIAGEYUZUIXIAOJIAGEZHIJIANDECHAJUSHI7.68MEIYUAN,ERHUANGJINPINGJUNZUIDAJIAGEYUZUIXIAOJIAGEZHIJIANDECHAJUSHI37.98MEIYUAN。DUIYUHUANGJINLAISHUO,WOMENKANDAOGUODEZUIDACHAJUSHI68.41MEIYUAN,ZUIXIAOCHAJUSHI18.08MEIYUAN。

                                相关性和期望

                                ZHEISHIYIGEJIBENDEJINGJICHANGSHI,JIJINGJIDEKUNNANHENENGYUANJIAGEDEZENGZHANGHUISHIHUANGJINCHENGWEIYIXIANGYOUXIYINLIDEZICHAN。ZENGZHANGDENENGYUANJIAGETONGCHANGYUSHIZHETONGHUOPENGZHANG。HUANGJINBEIRENWEIKEYIDUICHONGDIAOTONGHUOPENGPENGZHANG。LeBlancHEChinnKAOCHALEYUANYOUJIAGEHE2004NIANG5GUOJIATONGHUOPENGZHANGFASHENGQINGKUANGZHIJIANDEGUANXI。TAMENFAXIANDUIMEIGUOHEYINGGUOLAISHUO,YUANYOUJIAGE10%DEZENGZHANGJIANGHUIZHIJIEDAOZHITONGHUOPENGZHANGLVSHANGZHANGDAYUE0.1%DAO0.8%。TAMENFAXIANYINGGUODUIYOUJIASHANGZHANGZUIWEIMINGAN,YUJI10%DEYOUJIASHANGZHANGHUISHITADETONGHUOPENGZHANGLVYINCIPINGJUNSHANGSHENG2.5%。RIBENCHUZAIYINGGUOZHIHOU,DUITALAISHUOYOUJIA10%DESHANGZHANGHUIDAOZHI1.1%DETONGHUOPENGZHANGLVZENGJIA。

                                JIARUHUANGJINBEIRENWEISHIYIXIANGKEYIDUICHONGDIAOTONGHUOPENGZHANGDEZICHAN,BINGQIEZAIYUANYOUJIAGEHETONGHUOPENGZHANGLVZHIJIANCUNZAIYIGEZHENGXIANGGUANGUANXI。NEIME,HENZIRANDE,WOMENHUIRENWEIXIANHUOHUANGJINHEYUANYOUDEJIAGEZAIZHANGQIKANLAISHIZHENGXIANGGUANDE。YEJIUSHISHUO,WOMENRENWEITAMENJIAGEDEZENGZHANGSHIYIZHIDE。SHUODAOZHEILI,WOXIANGYAOQIANGDIAODESHI,KENENGCAICEZHEILICUNZAIZHEYIGEDUILIANGGEJIAGEFANYINGDEZHIHOUHUIGENGSHIHEXIE。WOMENZAIKAOCHAYIZHONGGUANDIAN:HUANGJINDEMAIZHUYIDIAOZHENGTAMENDEGOUMAIXINGWEI,ZUOWEIDUIXIANYOUYUANYOUJIAGEDEHUIYING。ZAIZHEILI,MAIZHUMENJIUSHIYONGYUANYOUJIAGEXINXILAIZUOJUEDINGDE。YIBANSHUOLAI,ZHEILICUNZAIYIGEZHIHOU,JIYUANYOUJIAGEBEIXUANBUZHIHOUDEDIANHEXIANHUOHUANGJINJIAGEDUINEIXIANGXUANBUZUOCHUDIAOZHENGZHIHOUDEDIAN,ZHEILIANGDIANZHIJIANDEZHIHOU。SHIJIANXIANZHISHIBUZHICHIDUIZHIHOUDEKAOCHADE。ERQIE,YOUYUJIRIJIAGESHUJUBINGBUYOUWOMENZHANGKONG,SUOYIJISHIDUIWEIXIAOJIAGEZHIHOUDEJIANCHAYESHIBUKENENGDE。YOUYUZHEIXIEYUANYIN,JIAGESHIZAITONGYITIANBEIBIJIAODE。XIAMIANDETUJILEWOMENYIGECONG2007NIAN1YUEDAO10YUE26HAOYUANYOUJIAGEHEHUANGJINJIAGEZHIJIANXIANGGUANGUANXIQIANGDUDEZHAIYAO。CONGZHEIZHANGTUZHONG,WOMENKEYIQINGCHUDIKANDAO,ZICONG9YUEYILAIHUANGJINHEYUANYOUBIJINNIANDEQITARENHESHIHOUDOUGENGJINMIDIBEILIANXIQILAILE(JIAGEYIQIZENGZHANG),YOU91%XIANGGUANXING。CONG4YUE、5YUEHE6YUEDESHUJU,WOMENYOUDEDAOLEYIGEFUXIANGGUANGUANXI(JIAGEZONGTISHANGXIANGXIANGFANFANGXIANGYIDONG);RANER,ZHANGQIDEZONGTIXIANGGUANGUANXISHIZHENGXIANGDE,ZAI0.73%DAO73%ZHIJIAN。

                            wendy-1030-3

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                                JIARUXIANGGUANGUANXIXIANGTAZAIGUOQUJIGEYUEZHONGBIAOXIANDENEIYANGRENGRANHENQIANG,NEIMEWOMENDUIWEILAIDEYUQIHUISHIZENYANGDENI?JIYUYUQIDEYUANYOUGONGJIYUXUQIU,EIAYUJISHIJIEYUANYOUJIAGEHUIYOUSANZHONGQINGKUANG。

                            wendy-1030-4

                            点击此处查看全部新闻图片

                                XUDUOEIAZHIWAIDERENZHENGLUNDAO,WEIYIKENENGCHUXIANDEJIUSHIGAOYOUJIADEQINGKUANG。JIARUZHEISHISHISHIDEHUA,NEIMEZIRANDIWOMENKEYIQIDAIHUANGJINJIAGEJIXUTADELINGRENCHIJINGDEZHANGQIKANHAOBIAOXIAN。DANGRAN,WOMENYINGGAIQINGCHUJIARUDIYOUJIADEQINGKUANGCHUXIANLEDEHUAHUANGJINJIAGEZOUSHIYOUHUISHIZENYANGDE。QINGJIZHUHUANGJINHEYUANYOUJIAGEQUXIANGYUSUIZHESHIJIANGONGTONGBIANHUA。RENWEIZHEILIBUHUICHUXIANYIGEKEYIDATISHANGGUANCHADAODEHUANGJINHEYUANYOUJIAGEDEde-couplingSHIHENZIYIWEISHIDEXIANGFA。JIARUJINNIAN4YUE、5YUEHE6YUEDEQINGXINGYANXUDEHUA,ZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGKENENGHUIFASHENG;ZHEIYIQINGKUANGHUIYINGXIANGDAOZONGTIDEGUANXI,SHIQIZHUANWEIFUXIANGGUAN,SHENZHISHIKEYIHULVEDE。

                                WODEGUANYU2007NIANHUANGJINHEYUANYOUJIAGEDEZONGSHUJIUDAOCIJIESHULE。WOXIWANGZAIJINNIANDISIJIDUJIESHUSHI,NENGGOUZAIDUHUIDAOZHEIGEHUATI,TONGSHIDAIJINIZUIXINDESHUJU。

                                XIACIZAIJIAN,BAOZHONGSHENTIBINGZHUNIMENXIAYIZHOUGUODEYUKUAI。

                                Wendy

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